Program: Right verdict, wrong case? The political dangers of Trump’s felony conviction

Of the four criminal cases, with a total of 88 criminal offences, that have been brought against Donald Trump in the years after his presidency — time will tell if it is merely an interregnum — the first was regarded the runt of the legal litter. And Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney who brought the case against the former president (and which accounts for 34 of the criminal offences), has repeatedly shown himself willing to defer to the trial schedule of the two federal cases (one involving the Capital riots on 6 January 2021, and the other classified documents retained by Trump in his Florida residence) and the far-reaching election interference case in Georgia. But as those other cases became successively bogged down due to delaying tactics and scandal, it became clear that the trial in Manhattan may be the only one to take place before the 2024 presidential election.

On 30 May 2024, after two days of deliberation following a five-week trial and hearing the testimony of 22 witnesses, a jury of 12 New Yorkers found Trump guilty of all 34 felony charges. These charges related to the falsification of business records in order to conceal the payment of “hush money” in violation of New York Election Law in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election.

The conviction of a former president is obviously momentous in its own right — but it only gains significance when one considers the disdain Trump has repeatedly expressed toward the law, law enforcement and legal constraints. On its surface, then, there is something evidently fitting about the fact that a man who regards himself as sitting “above the law” has been found guilty by a jury of his peers. In times like these, it is no small thing to bolster public faith in the principle of equality before the law and in the impartiality of the legal system.

And yet no sooner was Trump’s conviction handed down than the reprisals, recriminations and revisionism began. Trump immediately claimed the trial was “rigged” and that the presiding judge, Justice Juan Merchan, was “conflicted” and “corrupt”. Just as quickly, the preparedness to declare Trump the victim of a partisan “witch hunt” and the trial illegitimate was elevated to a kind of article of faith, a pledge of fealty on the part of his Republican allies. Such claims of politically motivated persecution were, moreover, leveraged to raise millions of dollars for Trump’s campaign. Even if around a quarter of Republican voters consider Trump unfit to run for the presidency after his conviction, it is clear that for many the prospect of a “felon-in-chief” is no deal-breaker — and, moreover, that if the choice must be made between upholding the law and supporting a lawless candidate, the latter must prevail.

Perhaps the most immediate danger that Trump’s conviction presents is, consequently, an exacerbation of the already critical collapse in public confidence in America’s democratic and legal institutions (including the FBI). There is also the concern that legal means are being used to solve what is ultimately an electoral problem. But there is another issue at play. The spectacle of a series of criminal cases brought by Democratic lawmakers and officials against a former Republican president and current candidate in the lead-up to an election can only feed the sense that legal institutions themselves can be used to exact revenge on one’s rivals, as Trump himself has promised to do if re-elected.

Which brings us inevitably to the question: if these dangers are the likely cost of prosecuting Donald Trump, is it worth it?

Guest: Emma Shortis is Senior Researcher in the International & Security Affairs Program at The Australian Institute. She is the author of Our Exceptional Friend: Australia’s Fatal Alliance with the United States.

Further reading:

• David Frum, “Wrong Case, Right Verdict Donald Trump”, The Atlantic, 30 May 2024.
• Sarah Longwell, “The Two-Time Trump Voters Who Have Had Enough”, The Atlantic, 5 June 2024.
• David Remnick, “Trump Is Guilty, but Voters Will Be the Final Judge”, The New Yorker, 30 May 2024.
• Susan Glasser, “The Revisionist History of the Trump Trial Has Already Begun”, The New Yorker, 31 May 2024.