Program: Polls close in UK election

Sally Sara: Good morning and welcome to AM. It is Friday the 5th of July. I'm Sally Sara coming to you from Gadigal Land in Sydney.

Voting in the UK general election has closed, with the Conservative Party expected to be defeated. Exit polls predict that Britain's Labor Party is on course for a landslide victory. Millions across the country have cast their ballots in a vote that will decide which party runs the country for the next five years. Our reporter, Michelle Rimmer, joins us now from London. Michelle, good morning. It will be some time before official results begin to come in. But what have the exit polls forecast?

Michelle Rimmer: Well, exit polls are suggesting that Britons have voted overwhelmingly for a change in government here in the UK. A poll that was produced by Ipsos, which is one of the UK's largest research agencies, is predicting that Labor will win this election with a super majority, claiming 410 seats out of a possible 650. That's an incredibly significant result for a UK election and will go down in history as one of the biggest wins if this exit polls do end up fulfilling and coming to fruition when official results come through. This means that Labor leader Keir Starmer would lead a government that has gained 209 seats since the last election in 2019. The exit polls are predicting that the Conservatives, on the other hand, will lose 241 seats, which would see them land on just 131 seats in the House of Commons, and it would make it really difficult for them to have much influence at all when it comes to passing bills. There are also some projected big wins for some of the minor parties. The Liberal Democrats are forecast to pick up 61 seats. They previously held just eight seats. And Nigel Farage's Reform UK party is predicted to pick up 13 seats, which is much more than was previously expected. So again, this is exit poll results, but there's looking to be some significant gains for the minor parties and obviously Labor as well.

Sally Sara: Michelle, we're still obviously waiting for the final results, which will be some way away. How much can we trust these predictions from the exit polls?

Michelle Rimmer: As always, exit polls are just a sample of voters. So that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. However, in the UK, this particular exit poll has a history of accurately predicting UK election outcomes within a number of seats. So it can be a good indication of what to expect. The numbers we're seeing were also predicted ahead of this election in other polls. So we've seen talk of this super majority and this being the biggest win expected for Labor from as early as early this year. And even a couple of years ago, we've been predicting this Labor win. So it is an exit poll, it needs to be taken in that way. And there'll be some time before either of the parties begin celebrating or conceding defeat. However, it is a good indication of what can be expected when official results start to come out over the coming hours.

Sally Sara: Michelle Rimmer, thank you. That's our reporter, Michelle Rimmer in London.

WA Senator Fatima Payman's decision to quit the Labor Party and join the crossbench has dominated the final sitting week of Parliament. Now attention turns to what she'll do next. The 29-year-old hasn't ruled out the possibility of starting her own political party, but for now she'll sit as an Independent. As Senator Payman weighs up her next move, the last federal Labor politician to vote against the party has warned that the Senator is about to find out who her real friends are. Oliver Gordon reports.

Oliver Gordon: WA Senator Fatima Payman will return from Parliament's mid-winter break as an Independent, but she's left the door open to one day starting her own political party.

Senator Fatima Payman: I have no idea. I haven't at this stage. I have not thought about it. Maybe I will, maybe I won't.

Oliver Gordon: Before spectacularly crossing the floor in support of a Greens motion calling for Palestinian statehood, Senator Payman met with preference whisperer Glenn Druery and an emerging political movement calling itself the Muslim Vote. The convener of that group has plans to announce two candidates in Labor-held seats in Western Sydney, but Senator Payman has distanced herself from the movement, saying her meeting with them was insignificant.

Senator Fatima Payman: Because I just wanted to, like every other group that I've met with, wanted to hear what they've got to say. I mean, the Muslim Vote, I don't, I have no affiliation with them, but I think what they're doing in terms of educating communities about that political literacy is very important.

Oliver Gordon: With speculation whirling about the Senator's next steps, legal adviser for the Australian Imams Council Bilal Rauf is afraid Payman's principled stance against the Albanese government's record on Israel could be forgotten.

Bilal Rauf: To speculate about, well, what happens next or some other block, frankly, does a disservice to those concerns and also risks turning away from what we do know about very serious concerns and human rights issues.

Oliver Gordon: And he points out it's not just Labor that should be concerned about Muslim communities deserting them at the next election.

Bilal Rauf: It would be, I think, incorrect to think that it's an issue only impacting on Labor and not politics and political parties more generally.

Oliver Gordon: Senator Payman's resignation from the Labor Party has sparked debate about whether it needs to change long-held protocols requiring members to vote along party lines. But in a statement, ALP National President Wayne Swan has stood by the party's solidarity tradition, adding Senator Payman's decision to go it alone would only empower Labor's opponents. It's not a view endorsed by Harry Quick, the last federal Labor MP to vote against party lines way back in 2005.

Harry Quick: If you want to attract young, intelligent, diverse people into the party, you should allow them and must allow them to voice their opinions and if necessary, cross the floor in support of them.

Oliver Gordon: The anti-war former MP has painful memories of the weeks following his decision to go it alone on an anti-terrorism bill his Labor colleagues supported.

Harry Quick: You're walking along the passageway and one of your colleagues is coming towards you and you automatically say hello Bill or hi Steve and they just ignore you and walk past you. When you go to the coffee shop in the house, people turn their backs and ignore you.

Oliver Gordon: His advice to the newly independent Senator Payman?

Harry Quick: I would suggest that she finds a nice warm spot in Australia and relaxes and turns her phone off for a couple of weeks.

Sally Sara: That's former federal MP Harry Quick ending Oliver Gordon's report.

Senator Fatima Payman says she will listen and engage with the people of WA to find out which issues matter most. The Senator was elected from what seemed to be an unwinnable spot on WA's Senate ticket due to Labor's rise in popularity. So what do voters in her home state make of her becoming an independent? Isabel Moussalli prepared this report.

Isabel Moussalli: Perth woman Jill is enjoying a school holiday outing with her granddaughter on the foreshore.

Voter 1: It's wonderful here isn't it? No they enjoy it.

Voter 1's granddaughter: The merry-go-round is, it was really fun. Made me dizzy a little bit.

Isabel Moussalli: But for WA voters like Jill, national politics can seem like a bit of a circus. She's still trying to get her head around the rapidly evolving events in Canberra this week surrounding former Labor Senator Fatima Payman.

Voter 1: I heard somebody else say how dare she and this is not West Australian and how yeah but I thought oh okay that's a strong opinion and then I realised what she did was kind of out of order for the Labor Party so I do stand up for people who are individual though and make their own choices so I can't say I disagree with what she did.

Isabel Moussalli: For others on the streets of Perth though, the WA Senator's name doesn't really resonate even if they did help elect her.

Voter 2: No sorry no idea.

Voter 3: No.

Voter 4: Who? No.

Isabel Moussalli: She's a Labor Senator for WA.

Voter 4: Who crossed the floor, yes.

Isabel Moussalli: So now she's leaving the Labor Party, she's going to be an independent now, what do you think about that move?

Voter 4: Oh that's great if she wants to do that but you know the Labor Party's got their rules and she hasn't played by their rules so she can leave and play by her own rules.

Isabel Moussalli: At the 2022 Federal Poll, Fatima Payman was elected from the third spot on Labor's Senate ticket. Martin Drum says the last time that happened for WA was in the 80s. He's a politics professor at Notre Dame University in Perth. We

Professor Martin Drum: don't normally get a third Labor Senator elected in Western Australia. It was because Mark McGowan was very popular, Scott Morrison was quite unpopular in Western Australia last time and the election of the third Senator was somewhat of a surprise for many observers and prior to this kerfuffle I don't think that she would have been all that well known in the broader community.

Isabel Moussalli: And while this event has elevated her profile, Fatima Payman still has four years left to serve in the Federal Parliament because Senators are elected to six-year terms. But Martin Drum warns she'll still face a tough task carving out her own position as representative for the voters of WA.

Professor Martin Drum: It's better for you to be known than unknown but it's better for you to be known on an issue that really switches a lot of votes. I think that gives you the best chance if you're able to tap into an issue that will remain on the agenda or will remain a really volatile issue that properly helps us well. I mean we've got a long way to go before Fatima Payman is actually up for re-election but there's not a strong history of electing independents in Western Australia to the Federal Parliament.

Isabel Moussalli: At least for now Senator Payman has the vote of this woman who didn't know her name but likes the sound of what she hears.

Voter 5: She will be a super strong person by herself.

Isabel Moussalli: Would you vote for her as an independent Senator instead of a Labor Senator?

Voter 5: I would being a woman myself because I do believe in women's rights and stuff like that and I do believe there are lots of controversies going on with Palestine and Israel and whatnot. So I do believe in all those things. If a woman is fighting for justice definitely I will stand by it.

Sally Sara: That report from Isabel Moussalli.

The competition regulator predicts there will soon be enough gas to meet demand on Australia's east coast for the next three years, despite warnings from the market operator about imminent shortfalls. The ACCC's report also found gas prices have continued to decline from record highs in 2022. But analysts warn the supply of gas is still extremely tight and recent weeks have tested its limits. Declan Gooch reports.

Declan Gooch: The last few weeks have seriously stretched Australia's supply of gas. The director of the energy program at the Grattan Institute, Tony Wood, says a cold snap and unusually low output from wind farms have driven up demand.

Tony Wood: That meant that we did run down the storage quite dramatically. The pipelines for bringing gas from Queensland were absolutely at full stretch and things were getting very, very close indeed. Now it looks like we've managed to get through that without major shortfalls, but it just shows you how quickly things can change and how close we are to major problems.

Declan Gooch: The latest report on the gas market from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission confirms what's now widely known. Australia's barely able to supply enough to meet domestic demand. But the ACCC is also forecasting there'll be no shortfall in supply on the east coast for the next three years, even predicting a gas surplus of around 20% of total demand next year. Tony Wood treats that with caution.

Tony Wood: What also stands out, given this report was published today and was produced and developed over the recent months, is how dramatically quickly things can change. I think if they were writing the report this week, they might not be so positive about the near term.

Declan Gooch: The Australian Energy Market Operator has repeatedly warned of imminent gas supply risks, most recently last month. And Professor Bruce Mountain from the Victoria Energy Policy Centre says the ACCC's report doesn't actually contradict those warnings.

Professor Bruce Mountain: The key points I take out from it is that the market is still very tight. They've pushed back by a year the expectation of the point at which demand exceeds supply, essentially because the Eraring coal-fired power station has been contracted to extend its life for another couple of years. Nonetheless, the figures that they present are stark. When you add together the international LNG demand from our own gas supply to the domestic demand, there's precious little left. So a little bit of space to breathe because of the coal generation extension, but not terribly much.

Declan Gooch: Bruce Mountain says even though most Australian gas gets exported, long-term supply contracts mean there's little that can be done to increase domestic availability.

Professor Bruce Mountain: The one thing that the ACCC mention is in the mid 2030s, the long-term LNG contracts will start to roll off. They say that that therefore is an opportunity to fundamentally rebalance the availability of gas for local consumption rather than for export demand. But they are loathe to touch that contracted export LNG, as is the government, for fear of severe international pressure on Australia.

Declan Gooch: The ACCC has also found domestic gas prices have continued to drop, from a high of more than $30 per gigajoule in mid-2022, down to an average of just over $14. The federal government's pointing to the price caps imposed by its new mandatory gas code as a possible factor. Here's Tony Wood from the Grattan Institute again.

Tony Wood: My reading of the report suggested that it's not quite as clear as that. Two things happen and some people can conclude one caused the other. Now often part of it's coincidental. So to what extent the code has really brought down prices is unclear. In fact, in the last couple of weeks, gas prices have been back up again. And nothing like what they were back in 2022, fortunately. But they certainly spiked again. And that's what happens when things get tight.

Declan Gooch: Some of Australia's biggest industrial consumers of gas say the price caps seem to be making a difference. Andrew Richards is the CEO of the Energy Users Association of Australia.

Andrew Richards: We've seen the behaviour of some gas producers significantly improve. And we've seen prices significantly improve as a result from some. But not all. I think we're still seeing some patchy results where some of our members are reporting prices at the higher end of the scale that's in this current ACCC report.

Sally Sara: That's Andrew Richards there from the Energy Users Association of Australia, ending Declan Gooch's report.

A marine park in the Southern Ocean around the remote Heard and McDonald Islands is set to quadruple in size. The Federal Government is planning to protect an extra 300,000 square kilometres of ocean around the sub-Antarctic islands, providing a haven for sea life and bird life. Marine ecologists say it's a terrific expansion but are worried some critical areas have been missed. National Affairs Editor Melissa Clarke has this exclusive.

Melissa Clarke: It's hard to find a more remote place in the world than the Heard and McDonald Islands. Specks in the Southern Ocean, they're 4,000 kilometres south-west of Western Australia. Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek describes the territory as unique and extraordinary.

Tanya Plibersek: These waters are absolutely vital for a range of threatened species including blue whales, southern right whales, albatross seals.

Melissa Clarke: Currently, 17% of the waters around Heard and McDonald Islands are classified as a sanctuary zone that is closed to the public. The Federal Government is proposing to create new National Park and Habitat Protection Zones in most of the remaining waters around the islands. It would mean 90% of the surrounding waters would be protected to some extent.

Tanya Plibersek: We're proposing to quadruple the area of waters protected around Heard and McDonald Islands, adding around 300,000 square kilometres to those protected waters.

Dr Andrew Constable: It's a terrific expansion.

Melissa Clarke: Dr Andrew Constable from the Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology at the University of Tasmania was the lead author of a recent independent report into the islands' marine ecosystems. While welcoming the proposal, he is worried that the areas with the strictest protections aren't quite in the right place.

Dr Andrew Constable: Yes, they are important and we welcome their protection, but there are other areas of higher priority.

Melissa Clarke: He would like to see an area of shallow water that is important to fur seals made a sanctuary zone, along with underwater ridges and canyons that are vital for penguin breeding and seafloor organisms. Richard Leck leads WWF Australia's campaigns to protect the ocean, and he says moving some of the proposed boundaries of the sanctuary zone could make a significant difference.

Richard Leck: There's some key habitats that are important to penguins, particularly the macaroni penguin, that remain unprotected under the new proposal. Australia is incredibly fortunate to be a custodian of this incredible place and we really should be giving it the protection it deserves.

Melissa Clarke: Marine conservationists emphasise that the biggest threat to vulnerable species in the sub-Antarctic region is climate change. Dr Constable is pleased the government's plans include funding for a research expedition in the next year or two, saying it will help them understand what changes are already happening.

Dr Andrew Constable: So polar regions are most at peril. The best thing that governments can do in these polar regions is to provide areas where there is no exacerbation of the climate change impacts from other activity.

Melissa Clarke: The proposed marine park expansion is open for public consultation until the 5th of September.

Sally Sara: That's Melissa Clarke reporting and that's AM for today. Thanks for your company, I'm Sally Sara.